The Great Escapists: Part One

QPR, Burnley, Leicester and Palace will all be candidates for relegation, but which side is most likely to beat the drop?

 

Relegated football teams share a small space with those teams that win the championship, or perhaps reach Europe or a cup final for the first time in their history.

 

For all clubs, it's the start of something big. But when you finish in the bottom three or four, you don't usually see that in the write-up. Probably with good reason.

The number of clubs that the Premier League chews up and spits out, mangled often beyond repair, grows and grows. Sheffield Wednesday, Bradford City, Coventry City, Southampton, Bolton Wanderers and QPR have all reported serious cashflow problems since their relegations.

Steve Bruce famously claimed that 'in the Premiership you've got 12 clubs shit-scared of relegation' when in charge of Birmingham City. There's no reason to think that's not still the case. So who should be most concerned about going down?

 

Queens Park Rangers

The background

The bloated squads and tales of farce from seasons yore recede into a serene sunset. QPR appear to have got the happy ending they aimed for when appointing Harry Redknapp in 2012, having reached the promised land, jettisoned 14 players from their ranks, and signed a clutch of experienced Premiership players.

Why are they candidates?

Loic Remy's goals could be crucial to QPR's survival

By their nature, promoted clubs tend to struggle, and QPR will be no different to begin with. Although the ship's steered by old hands in Redknapp and new first mate Glenn Hoddle, they need to plug gaps to avoid sinking fast. Clint Hill has previously struggled at this level, and Rio Ferdinand's underwhelming performances under David Moyes probably weren't motivation-based. And a strikeforce relying on Loic Remy, who has already tried to leave, doesn't bode well.

Why will they stay up?

The presence of Harry Redknapp and his mythical contacts book often turns the most prudent of spenders into fantasy football fans, but in Tony Fernandes he's found an owner who can probably earn it quicker than he can spend it, even if the Malaysian businessman did lose $250m at F1.

Juventus loanee Mauricio Isla is potentially one of the signings of the season and if QPR do play the rumoured 3-5-2 (that Hoddle knows well) they have a tailor made one in the Chilean. Defensively they look fairly solid as long as both Caulker or Onuoha aren't injured at once.

Who will they rely on?

Loic Remy's form up front alongside Charlie Austin, who got 18 goals last term, will be crucial. Jordan Mutch looks a shrewd signing from Cardiff, but the form of Rob Green in goal, Ferdinand and Caulker will be essential to QPR's survival. Expect goals at both ends.
 

Burnley

 

The background

Burnley are most peoples' favourites to go down and their board seem to have clocked on - their scheme of raising season tickets by 50% whilst the going's good smacks of cynicism, but depressingly will probably be construed as good financial sense in May.

 

Why are they candidates?

Fans are philosophical about their chances of staying up, but they arguably have a stronger side this time out. Still, a lack of investment in proven experience is a gamble on Sean Dyche's behalf. The side will need to improve on their lack of possession in the Championship - 48% - to keep the ball away from more dangerous opposition, and an injury to Vokes means Burnley will need to find his goals from somewhere else - which could be a tough ask.

Why will they stay up?

Danny Ings scored 21 goals for Burnley last season

Despite best laid plans by managers, there'll still be an element of surprise to Burnley's squad. They have goals in the team - they won nearly a quarter of all their games by two or more last year thanks mainly to a lethal combination of Danny Ings (right) and Sam Vokes, who got nearly 60% of them.

Their full backs will also help to create plenty, if last season's anything to go by. Ex Manchester City trainee Kieran Trippier got 14 assists last year from right back, and coach Sean Dyche has said that Burnley will look to use their full backs' pace to create chances.

Who will they rely on?

The full backs will be useful to Burnley's survival - Trippier and whichever of signing Matt Taylor and Ben Mee at left back to kick on in possession. England U-21 Michael Kightly's relegation scrap experience with Wolves could prove very valuable to the side, but the focus will undoubtedly be on the strikers.

 

Leicester City

 

The background

Four years after buying the club, a coaching merry-go-round, the return of Nigel Pearson and a slew of new players, Thai businessman Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha saw Leicester re-enter the Premier League with 102 points - a record for the club who have won the division a joint-record seven times. Recruitment's been prudent and a large portion of the 2013-14 squad remain in place for the new campaign.

Danny Drinkwater will need to keep scoring from midfield

Why are they candidates?

Leicester also haven't made many moves in the market, and their signing of Brighton's Leonardo Ulloa is pretty leftfield. Matthew Upson is probably past his best at this level, and a lot will depend on players like Schmeichel and Danny Drinkwater (right) at the spine of the team.

A lack of proven quality in the final third may be their undoing, with ex-Everton striker David Nugent their highest scorer last term with 20.

Why will they stay up?

Leicester's main threat is likely to be their relative youth in midfield - an average age of 23 means they're likely to push tiring sides hard, which had a very positive effect  on the numbers of goals scored in the second half of last season. New signing Marc Albrighton's also gives them an extra dimension from set pieces - an area they struggled with last term at both ends of the field.

Leicester do at least possess the resources to spend big if necessary as Ulloa's signing showed, which could be crucial to survival chances in January if they're floundering.

Who will they rely on?
Like Burnley, Leicester have gone with what they know. A vote of confidence must be taken as such by the Leicester midfield. Matty James, whose 'incisive' break-up play earned him four yellows and a red last year, needs to keep doing the dirty work for Lloyd Dyer and Drinkwater, who contributed 14 league goals between them last year and will need to do so again this year. But Ulloa is undoubtedly the marquee signing, and performances will quickly need to reflect that status to secure safety.
 

Crystal Palace

The background

Following Tony Pulis's shock resignation from Crystal Palace on Thursday it's fair, but sad, to say they ought to be considered. Pulis's sheer knack for organisation got a huge amount out of a ragged side cut adrift last season, and his replacement will have a tough job to emulate his man-management skills there.

Mile Jedinak has signed a new contract after an excellent season with Palace

Why are they candidates?

Precisely because of the things Pulis walked over. Palace have lacked big name signings to kick on, missing out on Sigurdsson and Caulker thanks to wage demands. Asking Mile Jedinak (left) to match last year's miraculous feat of not missing a game is surely too tall a hurdle, even for the Australian.

Why will they stay up?

Jason Puncheon and Yannick Bolasie offer what every counterattacking side needs - pace, direction and a talent for the unpredictable. Captain Jedinak's tackle and interception rate were amongst the best in the league last year. In goal, Wayne Hennessey offers strong competition to Speroni, and Brede Hangeland is ideal material for teams involved in tight matches. Signed on a free, he could be crucial.

Who will they rely on?

Puncheon and Bolasie will need to continue to make Palace's possession stats - average 37% last season - work for them. Dwight Gayle was a decisive sub towards the end of last season with seven goals, and with Palace averaging nearly 40% of all goals scores in the last ten minutes, his presence will be useful. 

But it's likely to be players like Jedinak, Dann and Hangeland who keep Palace in the game. They average 1.21 goals conceded per match last season - one of the best records in the division.

Next: West Brom, Aston Villa and Swansea City

Pics thanks to Reddit, Football365, The Daily Mirror and The Times