World Cup 2014: Second Round (Part 2)

So four from four. Yes they were pretty easy to guess, even if Costa Rica were pretty streaky against Greece - but I think the next set are tougher to call, with Belgium versus USA in particular likely to be, in American parlance, a shutout. In one line: I think France, Argentina, Germany and Belgium - just.

France v Nigeria

For coach Deschamps, another Lazarus-esque reanimation. His style has revitalised a French side who very nearly squandered their spot here with a 2-0 away loss to Ukraine in Kiev in April. The home leg, a 3-0 win for Les Bleus, was a microcosm of Deschamps' record so far, with his record of turning around the historical giants of the game neatly encapsulated in one stunning performance that helped everyone remember why France should be considered one of the tournament favourites.

And favourites they rightly are for this game, after a smoothly executed dismantling of a brutal Honduras side and the demolition of Switzerland left them top with a game to spare. Ignore Ecuador: that game simply proved that if Pogba, Benzema (right), Valbuena et al don't have a target, they revert to the sluggish, lethargic French side reminiscent of South Africa.

For Stephen Keshi's Nigeria this is arguably the biggest triumph of all after an error-strewn first match versus Iran and a torrid preceding 12 months. The side with the biggest population in the African continent have either punched above or below their weight in World Cups, depending on your perspective on African football, but with a decent, well-rounded squad capable of playing the best sides - Argentina - at their own game, and with Musa finally bursting into life alongside Emenike, this will be the toughest assignment yet for the French.

Prediction: France to win by two

Argentina v Switzerland

Bookmakers everywhere looked at Argentina's draw and wondered who, or what, would stop their surely irresistible march to the final versus Brazil. The host's most hated neighbours have a relatively straightforward path to the Maracana and Switzerland are the first of their not-so-challenging obstacles towards that target.

Odds have gone as low as 1/2 for a South American win and even without Aguero, Messi (below) appears - finally - to be shouldering a Maradona-moulded mantle that has passed on from some greats without success. In Argentina there are only two players who are revered as godlike. Good job one of them has four goals in this tournament.

 

Swiss coach Ottmar Hitzfeld probably couldn't have wished for a bigger game to end his career on, if this is to be the end, but although the odds are literally stacked against Switzerland, a much deeper, stronger reserve of players than was historically the case will ensure this is a real contest. Bayern's Shaqiri has been the headline act thus far but Inler and Behrami, alongside Dzemaili, will ensure Gago and Mascherano can't take it easy in midfield.

 

Switzerland's real danger is to be found outside the centre however, with Lichtsteiner in particular a very potent threat to Argentina's back three/four, depending on  coach Sabella's preference. But with Argentina's preference for counterattacking football - and Switzerland's recent memory of their dismantling by a similarly minded France - three on two situations could very quickly develop if Behrami charges upfield for attacks.

 

Number ten Xhaka will probably need to have the game of his career so far if they are to make a dent on the favourites, as will striker Drmic. And with the Swiss chances relying on outlandish possibilities like that, expect another South American side in the last eight.

 

Prediction: Buona notte/ bonne nuit/ gute nacht/ iyi geceler Switzerland

 

Germany v Algeria

 

It was bound to happen eventually. Whilst this is probably just another game for the Germans, Algeria may well see this as a long overdue opportunity for revenge for the so-called 'Anschluss of Gijon' between West Germany and neighbours Austria at the 1982 World Cup, when the north African side were eased out of second place in their group following what might be the least competitive game of professional football ever seen.

 

Or they might not. It'll be fascinating to see if Algeria's players are able to stand up to Germany's almost Brazilian rhythms whilst observing Ramadan - Germany's Mesut Ozil has already stated he will not be fasting during the World Cup - whilst playing in almost 90% humidity in Porto Alegre. At least it won't be sunny.

All of the intangible stuff - form, players, tournament history - indicates this'll be a step too far for Algeria, who have looked dangerously prone to submission from long balls and crosses, where their lack of height almost cost them against Russia. Even South Korea, not the most physical side, gave the Algerians a real test, dropping forty yard balls onto Meung-Hin Son and Don-Wong Jook that nearly hauled them back into the game.

Experience should also prove important for the Germans, who with 974 caps between them have nearly three times their opponents on 364. And although numbers aren't everything - as we've seen any time we watched Greece, Costa Rica or indeed Algeria - Germany's squad have scored a whopping 219 goals to Algeria's meagre 40, with the teams at either end of that particular spectrum.

Statistically then, this is a genuine maestros v minnows match-up. For Algeria, Majid Bougherra (left) has been a calming influence, particularly against the Russians in a tense, nervy finale, and they will need him to dominate play throughout. For Germany, their worst enemy is likely to be themselves, although with the close shave versus Ghana still in their collective rearview, it's unlikely Jogi Low's side will shoot themselves in the foot again.

Prediction: Deutschland über alles

Belgium v USA

At the start of this tournament I suggested Belgium would struggle to get past Portugal in the second round. They certainly would struggle now, as Portugal are justifiably out. That's mainly due to a brilliant performance in the second match versus the Americans, whose MLS, created under FIFA duress in 1994, is finally showing signs of flowering into a league capable of producing good players.

Toronto's Michael Bradley, Everton's Tim Howard and ex-Premier League striker Clint Dempsey are the big international names but encouragingly, there's quality sprouting up all over the States. Salt Lake's Kyle Beckerman has impressed with dependable, if not electric performances, whilst Kansas's Graham Zusi has supported Bradley in providing an incisive attacking platform for Dempsey to feed off. Klinsmann has got the team playing in a disciplined diamond pattern that flattens slightly when not in possession and the States have been aggressive in midfield, not afraid to push onto players to force squarer balls and nullify threats.

Belgium's challenge will be to improve on João Moutinho's ideas. Against Portugal, the US were repeatedly caught when Moutinho arrowed diagonals over the US midfield leaving Nani and Ronaldo with opportunities against technically weak fullbacks. Wastefulness and a pretty average distribution from the Monaco midfielder meant the US were able to capitalise, but there's no doubt the Belgians should be looking to force the Americans wider to defend their flanks, nullifying their diamond pattern.

It's unlikely that they will do however. Belgium have no 'quarterback' player to arrow those long balls in, and their single squad fullback, Anthony Vanden Borre, hasn't started a match. Their success will probably come in the form of an extremely solid back line and goalkeeper that the Americans will need to penetrate, but don't expect many goals. 

Nonetheless Hazard, who usually defends his wing well, will terrorise Johnson on the US right and Wilmots simply must deploy De Bruyne (above), his top scorer in qualifying, against Beasley on the Belgium right. Witsel and whoever partners him - likely Fellaini - will do fine with Dries Mertens dropping in. Orige would seem the adventurous choice to start, so expect Lukaku instead. A tight game awaits.

Prediction: Belgium in extra time

Pics thanks to Hattrick.cz, Goal.com, India Today and ESPN FC
 

A Load Of Hot Air?

The key to South American success is down to tactics, not the weather - and France and the Netherlands are proof

During the 1994 World Cup, before their first group match versus Morocco, the Belgian national team decided to try something to counteract the stifling Floridian heat. The plan was admittedly unorthodox; hair gel. Temperatures in Orlando were forecast to reach ninety degrees that day anyway, and so the Belgians slathered their hair in the desperate hope it would help keep them cool.

 

Belgium won 1-0, one Moroccan collapsed from dehydration, and sixty fans were hospitalised. But in the end, the better team won.

 

At this World Cup, the picture's much the same. Most pundits have put their money on a South American side flourishing, and the results, so far, bear them out. Spain, Italy and England are already out, whilst Belgium and Portugal have struggled to break teams down. Six out of the first eight group qualifiers - Costa Rica, Mexico, Chile, Uruguay, Colombia and hosts Brazil - are from Latin America.  

 

But it would be lazy to suggest it's all about the weather. It's a contributory factor for sure, but the main reason this tournament's seen one hundred goals already concerns the stuff football is all about - space, tactics and formations, particularly the return of wing backs and five man midfields.

 

Take Chile. Their exploitation of the wider spaces through their overlapping wing backs has seen some breathtaking moves, and their interlocking front players  - Eduardo Vargas (right), Alexis Sanchez and Jorge Valdivia, has been one of the best things about the tournament so far. Sanchez is particularly strong at running from out to in, as per his role with Barcelona, and that has made the three very difficult to track by opposing centre halves. Their performance versus Spain, coupled with their usual pressing excellence, made for exhilarating, high-risk football, and the holders simply could not hold the middle whilst being asked to track the marauding Isla and Mena.

 

But exactly the same argument could be made of the Netherlands, who utilised a defensive 5-3-2 and offensive 3-4-1-2 versus Spain and reaped rewards. Robben and Van Persie grabbed all the headlines but it was Ajax defender Daley Blind, son of legend Danny, who made the key difference, with his runs down the Spanish right tilting the play over to that side and also providing some very useful long balls to the forwards. Van Gaal correctly calculated that Spain didn't possess the men to make runs in behind his three man defence, and was able to utilise his players further up the field as a result.

 

The other major surprise has undoubtedly been Costa Rica who will play Greece in a second round match no one anticipated. Qualifying top, their secret - again - has been utilising a strong press with a wing-back formation that allowed them to break at speed against opponents who played with four defensive players, handing the Costa Ricans a man advantage in midfield that they utilised throughout.

 

The downside to all these full-backs pressing up the pitch? France 5 Switzerland 2. France destroyed Switzerland down the flanks through very quick counterattacks, with Valbuena and Benzema (left) both enjoying acres of space in the final third. Coupled with a very efficient goals-to-chances ratio, they are undoubtedly one of the teams to beat.

 

Whilst it's definitely true that the heat has made possession even more important to teams, quick transfers from defence to attacking formations have been integral to fast, clinical play that saves energy for the team in possession. To reap the benefits, you don't need to be born in a hot country - you need to be able to play whatever the situation demands.

 

Pictures courtesy of Eurosport Asia and IBNLive.com 

 

The English Patient

Far from lacking direction, English football wants to go in too many, with the consequences of a lack of strategy glaringly obvious

Navel-gazing time. England are out - again - and it's time to reflect on why. I can think of three or four events that really illustrate a lack of joined-up thinking behind not just English football, but sport in general.

1. The death of American Malcolm Glazer, who, along with his family, have imposed the contemporary American tactic of leveraged buyouts onto one of English football's greatest institutions, keeping it afloat financially through increasingly bemusing forays into untapped commercial markets. Official jacket potato partner anyone?
2. Greg Dyke's suggestion of what was effectively League Three - consisting of Premier League B teams - to bridge the financial and competitive gap between the Premier and Football League. Roundly condemned by all sides, it quickly appeared to be dead in the water.
3. A report by Ofsted on the standard of sporting excellence in state and public schools. Reported by the Guardian's David Conn, it highlighted the growing chasm of achievement between the two sectors, with 41% of all Olympic winning athletes coming from privately educated backgrounds - a freakishly large number when considering the number of state to public schools. It made no apparent reference as to why that was the case.
4. An interesting point made by former U-21 coach Stuart Pearce following England's elimination by Uruguay, who noted the Under 17 team had performed outstandingly at five consecutive tournaments - but then disappeared between the ages of 18-21. Why was that, he wondered.

The bigger picture here is somewhat blurry - and with good reason. English football, to put it simply, does not know what it wants to be. If it were to be analysed as a business, it undoubtedly underperforms - but the main reason for this is due to its deliberately fractured nature. The Premier League, English football's best performing 'product', generated £1.8 billion for its clubs last year but, as it is not affiliated with the FA, will keep all of that unless contractually obliged not to.

In England, as German journalist Raf Honigstein succinctly put it, football follows the money, not the other way around, as in the Bundesliga. That's resulted in clubs being bought by the planet's billionaires, with the inevitable smattering of financial disasters. Portsmouth nearly disappeared. It's no exaggeration to say Bobby Zamora saved QPR from financial meltdown in the playoff final.

If that doesn't highlight the Premier League's bubble status, consider Pearce's remarks. Uruguay happened, he suggested, because clubs pulled their best players out of the youth set up due to a lack of depth, weakening the national youth setup as a consequence. The Premier League bubble exacerbates the problem, as clubs throw eye-watering sums at players over spending a fraction developing its own resources for fear of relegation and the end of the gravy train. When the consequence could be liquidation,  you want all your resources available, all the time.

Go back to the country's production lines and see what chance British boys and girls have of making a career in football. In Belgium, clubs like Anderlecht join up with schools to ensure talented children have access to excellent facilities whilst getting an education. In the UK Ofsted suggests that 'commitment' from state school teachers is more important than the facilities privately educated children pay for.

Going back to Belgium again, who have come from nowhere to be considered one of the strongest sides in this year's World Cup, everywhere you look there is consistency. Every Belgium youth team plays 4-3-3, in the same mold as Ajax and Barcelona. That does not exist yet in England - and Belgium began their project 16 years ago. Greg Dyke thinks England should be targeting the 2022 World Cup - is that reasonable?

At each stage in the process of creating competitive sport in the UK, a hurdle must be jumped. That's fine - the British Olympic committee challenges its athletes to prove they have used resources wisely, or they will be cut from the picture next time around. It's worked tremendously well - but it's come at a significant price, as Ofsted's article indicates. 

No one is suggesting that responsibility should be shared between remote, distant bodies of arbitration either. But what's missing is precisely what's happened in Belgium - a sustained strategy, involving clubs, players, coaches, and more broadly, schools, municipal councils. A clear, overriding sense of direction.

There's simply no substitute for money here - but 'culture' is our currency, and it's the classic British term for mend-and-make-do. It's what governments turn to in times like these. Culture does not build buildings or improve pitches. It does not fund extracurricular activities. It does not encourage parents to spend money on trips around the country, or abroad, for their kids to play in competitions.

It does provide a sense of direction, but in the highest echelons of the national game, it's no replacement for sustained investment. British attitudes - that have-a-go, ne'er say die approach - have never been questioned. But British attitudes to money are slowly being uncovered, and the picture is not pretty. In sport, it penalises those who need it the most. 

In the end, the man who is now the chairman of the Football Association probably presents the greatest embodiment of the current state of the game. Dyke played a significant part in creating the modern-day Premier League, including driving a wedge between it and the FA in a deliberately orchestrated campaign of what he no doubt saw as liberation from a cumbersome body. The irony of Dyke's return, and what it says about not only English football, but its culture, should escape nobody.

Pic thanks to the Daily Telegraph

Thoughts on... World Cup 2014

Why Spain won't win, why Argentina could, and why Brazil probably will

 

It's never nice to see bold predictions spectacularly backfire, as Dutch journalist Simon Kuper learned last night. But I'm going to make some anyway.

 

 1. Spain won't win again

Simply put, Spain are far too close in organisation and style to club side Barcelona, who ended this season without a trophy for the first time in six years. There are seven Barcelona players in the Spain squad. Real have three, and league champions Atletico have four. Five of those Barca players started last night's game, and Pedro came on during the second half.  

 
Both sides monopolise possession. Both sides have struggled to score goals recently, with Barca's end-of-season form particularly unsettling from a Spanish perspective. The numbers are very similar: Spain controlled matches with 65% possession at the last World Cup and a staggering 68% at Euro 2012. Barca's record is very similar, with 67% in 2010 and 68% in 2012. Real Madrid, la seleccion's other main source of players, offered 56% in both 2010 and 2012.

Goals have also been hard to come by for Spanish strikers, with only Brazil-born Diego Costa scoring more than 20 goals in his respective league this season. Whilst Spain have relied on a solid defence and vast amounts of the ball to control matches, the signs last night were ominous. 

Ramos, tormented by Robben, appears to have left his form in Lisbon. Pique seems affected by that anxiety and exhaustion that has consumed the blaugrana in their final weeks. And perhaps Casillas (above), struggling for game time, has finally hit the wall after a career laden with awards. With all of these barriers to overcome, it will not be La Roja who lift the trophy in the Maracana.

 

2. Brazil enjoy home comforts

 

As Nate Silver's noted, Brazil are nearly unbeatable at home when it really counts. Leaving aside a very streaky performance versus a bold, adventurous Croatia, Group A should hold no further worries for them, with a Mexico side rebounding from a dismal 12 months and a Cameroon side yet again distracted by pay issues from its FA.

 

Plenty of commentators have observed the near-religious fervor the team experiences in Brazil, and it is very tempting to wonder how much of Thursday's performance was down to nerves. Scolari's side do look very vulnerable to thrusting counterattacks down the wings, with Alves particularly at fault on Thursday evening, and sides that can capitalise on this will enjoy chances aplenty. But Brazil rarely come apart when it really matters, and still boast a team spread across Europe complete with genuine stars - Neymar (above) and Thiago Silva being the standouts. 

 

But the most compelling reason for tipping Brazil lies in their history at home. As mentioned, the last time Brazil last lost a competitive match in their home country was 1975. The only surprise is that bookmakers have not chosen the hosts as their runaway favourites - for that is what the form book suggests. 

 

3. Belgium will struggle

 

Every serious football hipster wants to see Belgium do well. And with a squad containing some of Europe's premier talents, it's likely they'll make short work of a group that offers only Russia as the serious competition. Hazard, De Bruyne, Kompany and co will also see the tournament as a chance to make a dent on the 'good on paper' theory plenty will subscribe to.
 
Their weak point, unfortunately, is a lack of goals. Although plenty of the team have contributed, Christian Benteke is their top scorer with six goals since 2010. And with Benteke out through the injury, Belgium will need to find goals from elsewhere - and on current form at this World Cup, lots of them.
 

The other significant problem is Belgium's second round opponents, who will probably be either Germany or Portugal. Portugal may not possess as much strength in depth as their illustrious group counterparts, but in Ronaldo they will offer every team a serious threat and a backing squad of Joao Moutinho, Pepe, Fabio Coentrao and Varela will keep Belgium occupied. This is probably two years too early. Expect big things in 2016. 

 

4. Argentina should run Brazil close

 

La Albiceleste are ranked as second favourites to lift the Jules Rimet trophy behind the hosts Brazil, but leaving aside home advantage, the Argentines possess a far stronger squad than almost everyone else, bar the Germans and Spain. A dazzling forward line containing Higuain (right), Aguero and Lionel Messi is backed up by a renascent Fernando Gago and Real Madrid's Champions League final architect, Angel di Maria.

 

Statistically they are South America's deadliest side - with the highest ball retention figure at 85% and more goals (35) than every other side, they will run riot in a weak group containing Bosnia-Herzegovina, Nigeria and Iran. They have scored two goals or more in more than a third of all games since 2010, and that habit of building unassailable leads will be important in sticky, sapping conditions. And with potentially the easiest route to the final of all of the favourites, the neutrals have more than one reason to hedge their bets on Brazil's hated neighbours winning in their backyard.

 

5. Sometimes statistics count for nothing

 

Jonathan Liew makes England to be statistically the model team for winning the World Cup. And that's really why you should take all of the above with a large pinch of cachaça.

Photos from Soccer Lens and The Guardian