Tuesday 12 August 2014

Premier League 2014-15 Season Preview: Part 1

It's back. And nobody was watching that golf nonsense anyway.


At last. Welcome back, football. Like dust,  football just never goes away. It always looks like the same stuff, but it's always a bit different. And with that in mind, it seems a nice moment to think about what's going to happen this season. First up:
 

Who will win the league?

 
Mourinho's horse metaphor was an apt assessment of last season. Though his 'little horse' comment was mischievous, the smokescreen it established meant a new perspective on Chelsea's less glamorous results - precisely what the Portuguese wanted.

To borrow the metaphor, thoroughbreds always win championships, and in Manchester City there was only one of those last season. Now there are two. Mourinho's raid on his Champions League nemeses, Atletico, has added the requisite grit at the back and bombast up front. Fabregas returns to London from Catalonia a changed man, able to play a forward's role as well as his more familiar central midfield position, and his role in Mourinho's attacking midfield - where he is known to favour pace and physique above agility (if he can't have both) - will intrigue.
 
Costa and Terry argue. That's one problem sorted then.
Inevitably for a Mourinho team, it's likely to come down to the GA column in the table.  Chelsea's united front of Ivanovic, Terry, Cahill and Azpilicueta now has Filipe Luis in it and Thibault Courtois behind it. With Kalas and Zouma in the wings, you get the feeling only an assault of the elemental kind would dissuade resolve. Aspiring Premier League chairmen should see what Roland Emmerich or perhaps Alejandro Jodorowsky have up their sleeves.

In what may be a blessing in disguise for Chelsea and their po-faced arsonist/ coach, Louis Van Gaal's arrival undoubtedly means United are once again the club to watch this season. A relatively comfortable start could see them challenging the early leaders before Liverpool come to town on December 13th to resume hostilities.
 
It's hard to assess which of these clubs will be the superior by that point, with both in need of some rebuilding to some extent. Of the two, Brendan Rodgers' need to replace the explosive results of Luis Suarez appear the more challenging, on the face of it.
Van Gaal, maybe thinking deep thoughts. Maybe not.
 
But Van Gaal (right) and United should start behind their neighbours in more than the alphabetical sense. Rodgers' rebuilding project has taken in a few dead ends, with some deals - Iago Aspas stands out - more bemusing than bewitching, but he's two years ahead of United, where a paradox of having more net income than every other club in the league, but a lack of quality options to choose from, is proving a tricky hurdle. 
 
Herrera has finally arrived and provides ballast for Carrick, but their proposed 5-3-2 shape demands at least one additional centre half, as well as a potential upgrade at right wing back based on current options. Encouragingly Robin van Persie doesn't appear to be an international that suffers tournament hangovers - in his last two major tournaments he has scored more goals than the previous season. Question marks over a considerable portion of a squad Ferguson won a 20th title with are still a big reason for more modest aims this year.
 
United's goals are clear and distinct; rebuild, aim for Europe, maybe a trophy. For Liverpool, their success may blur priorities. They arguably blew their best ever chance to claim the Premier League and Europe may offer irresistible opportunities to a side that were deadly in individual matches last season, despite conceding 50 goals.
 
Dejan Lovren, presumably just out of the gym in that vest
Anfield may be in redevelopment in more than the bricks and mortar sense, but Rodgers' newest recruits from the south coast, and their title-chasing colleagues, will receive spinetingling confirmation of their manager's relentless dedication to putting Liverpool back on their f'ing perch come midweek, midseason.

Even the less boisterous Liverpool fan riles at the suggestion Europe does not miss their contribution. And they make a good point, and should the squad still be visiting John Lennon airport in March next year, expect their league title to falter - and the temperature to rise a bit on Merseyside.
 
Whilst Arsenal have markedly upped their spending this summer, there remains little supplementary firepower for Giroud, although Alexis will undoubtedly add menace to an already scintillating forward line.
 
Arsenal seem committed to a certain kind of football, stockpiling aesthetic brilliance as if a football Cold War were about to descend, and their need for a holding midfielder to support Flamini, and a replacement for Vermaelen remain issues.
We've won something! Can everyone stop going on now?
 
They have kept pace with those directly around them, but they need to start throwing a few elbows at their rivals mid-race if they want to be out in front near the finish. Key games at the usual haunts  - Liverpool, Chelsea and the Manchester clubs - await. For a team that thrives on confidence, their need for positive outcomes is crucial to success.

And so to last season's champions and this year's other big favourites. Three titles in four years, and consecutive championships, would put City in the company of just Chelsea and their illustrious Stretford neighbours. Statements made, markers laid, etc etc.
 
And if everything goes to plan, this season should be a straight fight between Chelsea and City for the title. That plans are being made and adhered to is still a source of miraculous joy for most City fans, but there you go.
 
Van Persie and Mangala will play as derby rivals this season
Mangala and Sagna's arrival removed City's weaknesses in defence at a stroke and Fernando's arrival asks an awkward question of Javi Garcia and potentially the unfortunate James Milner. Joe Hart meanwhile faces the unenviable task of improving on his outstanding form in 2014 with the arrival of Willy Caballero, sub in nothing but name having played seven more matches than the England international for Malaga last season.
 
FFP has meant City's movements have been prudent this summer, and there's little doubt Mangala will close the door after him following his signing. Yet Sunday's loss to Arsenal demonstrated the disjointed movements of a spineless team, and it will again fall to Kompany, Toure, Silva and Aguero to provide the nitrous power that rocketed City to 102 goals and the top position in May.

As has been said elsewhere, when Mourinho has to win - at Chelsea the first time, and at Real in his second season - he does. And there's plenty to suggest City will work very hard to improve on last season's second round exit from Europe, with a deeper squad to play deep into two draining competitions.
 
So bearing in mind all of the above, and taking into account personal bias, here's my top four for May 2015:

1st: Man City
2nd: Chelsea
3rd: Man United
4th: Arsenal (sorry, Arsenal fans)
 
Next: Who's going down? Who's the worst signing? Who's the best? Plus: why tracksuits should be banned from touchlines, new rules for referees and the relationship between bad managers and 'banter' finally investigated.
 

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