Monday 30 June 2014

World Cup 2014: Second Round (Part 2)

So four from four. Yes they were pretty easy to guess, even if Costa Rica were pretty streaky against Greece - but I think the next set are tougher to call, with Belgium versus USA in particular likely to be, in American parlance, a shutout. In one line: I think France, Argentina, Germany and Belgium - just.

France v Nigeria

For coach Deschamps, another Lazarus-esque reanimation. His style has revitalised a French side who very nearly squandered their spot here with a 2-0 away loss to Ukraine in Kiev in April. The home leg, a 3-0 win for Les Bleus, was a microcosm of Deschamps' record so far, with his record of turning around the historical giants of the game neatly encapsulated in one stunning performance that helped everyone remember why France should be considered one of the tournament favourites.

And favourites they rightly are for this game, after a smoothly executed dismantling of a brutal Honduras side and the demolition of Switzerland left them top with a game to spare. Ignore Ecuador: that game simply proved that if Pogba, Benzema (right), Valbuena et al don't have a target, they revert to the sluggish, lethargic French side reminiscent of South Africa.

For Stephen Keshi's Nigeria this is arguably the biggest triumph of all after an error-strewn first match versus Iran and a torrid preceding 12 months. The side with the biggest population in the African continent have either punched above or below their weight in World Cups, depending on your perspective on African football, but with a decent, well-rounded squad capable of playing the best sides - Argentina - at their own game, and with Musa finally bursting into life alongside Emenike, this will be the toughest assignment yet for the French.

Prediction: France to win by two

Argentina v Switzerland

Bookmakers everywhere looked at Argentina's draw and wondered who, or what, would stop their surely irresistible march to the final versus Brazil. The host's most hated neighbours have a relatively straightforward path to the Maracana and Switzerland are the first of their not-so-challenging obstacles towards that target.

Odds have gone as low as 1/2 for a South American win and even without Aguero, Messi (below) appears - finally - to be shouldering a Maradona-moulded mantle that has passed on from some greats without success. In Argentina there are only two players who are revered as godlike. Good job one of them has four goals in this tournament.
 
Swiss coach Ottmar Hitzfeld probably couldn't have wished for a bigger game to end his career on, if this is to be the end, but although the odds are literally stacked against Switzerland, a much deeper, stronger reserve of players than was historically the case will ensure this is a real contest. Bayern's Shaqiri has been the headline act thus far but Inler and Behrami, alongside Dzemaili, will ensure Gago and Mascherano can't take it easy in midfield.
 
Switzerland's real danger is to be found outside the centre however, with Lichtsteiner in particular a very potent threat to Argentina's back three/four, depending on  coach Sabella's preference. But with Argentina's preference for counterattacking football - and Switzerland's recent memory of their dismantling by a similarly minded France - three on two situations could very quickly develop if Behrami charges upfield for attacks.
 
Number ten Xhaka will probably need to have the game of his career so far if they are to make a dent on the favourites, as will striker Drmic. And with the Swiss chances relying on outlandish possibilities like that, expect another South American side in the last eight.
 
Prediction: Buona notte/ bonne nuit/ gute nacht/ iyi geceler Switzerland
 
Germany v Algeria
 
It was bound to happen eventually. Whilst this is probably just another game for the Germans, Algeria may well see this as a long overdue opportunity for revenge for the so-called 'Anschluss of Gijon' between West Germany and neighbours Austria at the 1982 World Cup, when the north African side were eased out of second place in their group following what might be the least competitive game of professional football ever seen.
 
Or they might not. It'll be fascinating to see if Algeria's players are able to stand up to Germany's almost Brazilian rhythms whilst observing Ramadan - Germany's Mesut Ozil has already stated he will not be fasting during the World Cup - whilst playing in almost 90% humidity in Porto Alegre. At least it won't be sunny.

All of the intangible stuff - form, players, tournament history - indicates this'll be a step too far for Algeria, who have looked dangerously prone to submission from long balls and crosses, where their lack of height almost cost them against Russia. Even South Korea, not the most physical side, gave the Algerians a real test, dropping forty yard balls onto Meung-Hin Son and Don-Wong Jook that nearly hauled them back into the game.

Experience should also prove important for the Germans, who with 974 caps between them have nearly three times their opponents on 364. And although numbers aren't everything - as we've seen any time we watched Greece, Costa Rica or indeed Algeria - Germany's squad have scored a whopping 219 goals to Algeria's meagre 40, with the teams at either end of that particular spectrum.

Statistically then, this is a genuine maestros v minnows match-up. For Algeria, Majid Bougherra (left) has been a calming influence, particularly against the Russians in a tense, nervy finale, and they will need him to dominate play throughout. For Germany, their worst enemy is likely to be themselves, although with the close shave versus Ghana still in their collective rearview, it's unlikely Jogi Low's side will shoot themselves in the foot again.

Prediction: Deutschland über alles

Belgium v USA

At the start of this tournament I suggested Belgium would struggle to get past Portugal in the second round. They certainly would struggle now, as Portugal are justifiably out. That's mainly due to a brilliant performance in the second match versus the Americans, whose MLS, created under FIFA duress in 1994, is finally showing signs of flowering into a league capable of producing good players.

Toronto's Michael Bradley, Everton's Tim Howard and ex-Premier League striker Clint Dempsey are the big international names but encouragingly, there's quality sprouting up all over the States. Salt Lake's Kyle Beckerman has impressed with dependable, if not electric performances, whilst Kansas's Graham Zusi has supported Bradley in providing an incisive attacking platform for Dempsey to feed off. Klinsmann has got the team playing in a disciplined diamond pattern that flattens slightly when not in possession and the States have been aggressive in midfield, not afraid to push onto players to force squarer balls and nullify threats.

Belgium's challenge will be to improve on João Moutinho's ideas. Against Portugal, the US were repeatedly caught when Moutinho arrowed diagonals over the US midfield leaving Nani and Ronaldo with opportunities against technically weak fullbacks. Wastefulness and a pretty average distribution from the Monaco midfielder meant the US were able to capitalise, but there's no doubt the Belgians should be looking to force the Americans wider to defend their flanks, nullifying their diamond pattern.

It's unlikely that they will do however. Belgium have no 'quarterback' player to arrow those long balls in, and their single squad fullback, Anthony Vanden Borre, hasn't started a match. Their success will probably come in the form of an extremely solid back line and goalkeeper that the Americans will need to penetrate, but don't expect many goals. 

Nonetheless Hazard, who usually defends his wing well, will terrorise Johnson on the US right and Wilmots simply must deploy De Bruyne (above), his top scorer in qualifying, against Beasley on the Belgium right. Witsel and whoever partners him - likely Fellaini - will do fine with Dries Mertens dropping in. Orige would seem the adventurous choice to start, so expect Lukaku instead. A tight game awaits.

Prediction: Belgium in extra time

Pics thanks to Hattrick.cz, Goal.com, India Today and ESPN FC
 

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