Why Spain won't win, why Argentina could, and why Brazil probably will
It's never nice to see bold predictions spectacularly backfire, as Dutch journalist Simon Kuper learned last night. But I'm going to make some anyway.
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1. Spain won't win again
Simply put, Spain are far too close in organisation and style to club side Barcelona, who ended this season without a trophy for the first time in six years. There are seven Barcelona players in the Spain squad. Real have three, and league champions Atletico have four. Five of those Barca players started last night's game, and Pedro came on during the second half.
Both sides monopolise possession. Both sides have struggled to score goals recently, with Barca's end-of-season form particularly unsettling from a Spanish perspective. The numbers are very similar: Spain controlled matches with 65% possession at the last World Cup and a staggering 68% at Euro 2012. Barca's record is very similar, with 67% in 2010 and 68% in 2012. Real Madrid, la seleccion's other main source of players, offered 56% in both 2010 and 2012.
Goals have also been hard to come by for Spanish strikers, with only Brazil-born Diego Costa scoring more than 20 goals in his respective league this season. Whilst Spain have relied on a solid defence and vast amounts of the ball to control matches, the signs last night were ominous.
Ramos, tormented by Robben, appears to have left his form in Lisbon. Pique seems affected by that anxiety and exhaustion that has consumed the blaugrana in their final weeks. And perhaps Casillas (above), struggling for game time, has finally hit the wall after a career laden with awards. With all of these barriers to overcome, it will not be La Roja who lift the trophy in the Maracana.
2. Brazil enjoy home comforts
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As Nate Silver's noted, Brazil are nearly unbeatable at home when it really counts. Leaving aside a very streaky performance versus a bold, adventurous Croatia, Group A should hold no further worries for them, with a Mexico side rebounding from a dismal 12 months and a Cameroon side yet again distracted by pay issues from its FA.
Plenty of commentators have observed the near-religious fervor the team experiences in Brazil, and it is very tempting to wonder how much of Thursday's performance was down to nerves. Scolari's side do look very vulnerable to thrusting counterattacks down the wings, with Alves particularly at fault on Thursday evening, and sides that can capitalise on this will enjoy chances aplenty. But Brazil rarely come apart when it really matters, and still boast a team spread across Europe complete with genuine stars - Neymar (above) and Thiago Silva being the standouts.
But the most compelling reason for tipping Brazil lies in their history at home. As mentioned, the last time Brazil last lost a competitive match in their home country was 1975. The only surprise is that bookmakers have not chosen the hosts as their runaway favourites - for that is what the form book suggests.
3. Belgium will struggle
Every serious football hipster wants to see Belgium do well. And with a squad containing some of Europe's premier talents, it's likely they'll make short work of a group that offers only Russia as the serious competition. Hazard, De Bruyne, Kompany and co will also see the tournament as a chance to make a dent on the 'good on paper' theory plenty will subscribe to.
Their weak point, unfortunately, is a lack of goals. Although plenty of the team have contributed, Christian Benteke is their top scorer with six goals since 2010. And with Benteke out through the injury, Belgium will need to find goals from elsewhere - and on current form at this World Cup, lots of them.
Their weak point, unfortunately, is a lack of goals. Although plenty of the team have contributed, Christian Benteke is their top scorer with six goals since 2010. And with Benteke out through the injury, Belgium will need to find goals from elsewhere - and on current form at this World Cup, lots of them.
The other significant problem is Belgium's second round opponents, who will probably be either Germany or Portugal. Portugal may not possess as much strength in depth as their illustrious group counterparts, but in Ronaldo they will offer every team a serious threat and a backing squad of Joao Moutinho, Pepe, Fabio Coentrao and Varela will keep Belgium occupied. This is probably two years too early. Expect big things in 2016.
4. Argentina should run Brazil close.png)
La Albiceleste are ranked as second favourites to lift the Jules Rimet trophy behind the hosts Brazil, but leaving aside home advantage, the Argentines possess a far stronger squad than almost everyone else, bar the Germans and Spain. A dazzling forward line containing Higuain (right), Aguero and Lionel Messi is backed up by a renascent Fernando Gago and Real Madrid's Champions League final architect, Angel di Maria.
Statistically they are South America's deadliest side - with the highest ball retention figure at 85% and more goals (35) than every other side, they will run riot in a weak group containing Bosnia-Herzegovina, Nigeria and Iran. They have scored two goals or more in more than a third of all games since 2010, and that habit of building unassailable leads will be important in sticky, sapping conditions. And with potentially the easiest route to the final of all of the favourites, the neutrals have more than one reason to hedge their bets on Brazil's hated neighbours winning in their backyard.
5. Sometimes statistics count for nothing
Jonathan Liew makes England to be statistically the model team for winning the World Cup. And that's really why you should take all of the above with a large pinch of cachaça.
Photos from Soccer Lens and The Guardian
Photos from Soccer Lens and The Guardian
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