Thursday 31 July 2014

Daniel In The Lion's Den



Pochettino will suffer if Spurs fail again, but Levy's decisions over managers and transfer policy should now be given the same scrutiny

The Napoleonic travails of Daniel Levy go on. Ensconced in the Spurs chairman's seat in 2001, he was just nine years older than the great French general when he overthrew the French government aged thirty.

In the twenty years following, Bonaparte galloped across Europe, Asia and parts of North Africa, with aims of conquering large parts of civilisation, only to come unstuck just over the border in the United Kingdom of the Netherlands, now postal code 1410, with the sign for the crossroads present at the time of battle still planted firmly in the middle of town.

Levy's perplexing criss-crossing all over the Premier League, Europe and further afield in search of domination - or a regular Champions League spot - has long been a point of debate for football fans, journalists and perhaps the growing list of managers he has sacked. It's prompted journalists to ask what Levy wants to see from Spurs and how he intends to achieve it.

Bids this week for Southampton's Jay Rodriguez and Morgan Schneiderlin, both rebuffed by the club's chairman, have also highlighted the carousel-like nature of Spurs' squad in the summer months. This year is no different to any of Spur's previous four.

In 2010 they signed eight first team players. Seven went back out on loan to other, mainly Football League clubs. In 2011 they signed six and let four go. In 2012 Spurs bought eight players and released or sold nine, and last season Spurs bought and sold or released seven players.

Their league position throughout the same dates has ranged from fourth to sixth. There is a spread of just ten points between their best and worst season performances in that time - 62 being the worst and 72 being the best. Even their goals scored and against are remarkably similar, with 55, 66, 66 and 55 for from 2010-2014 and 46, 41, 46, 51 against for the same period. A spread of 11 for and ten against respectively.

Contrast those spreads with Arsenal, their longstanding nefarious rivals, and the picture becomes clearer. Arsenal have improved each season in points gained, with 68, 70, 73 and 79 in consecutive seasons. That isn't the case with Spurs. Their goals for spread is just four, and their lowest goals scored is two more than Spurs' highest at 68.

Their goals against spread is 11 - the same as Spurs - but the 2013-14 season is a case in point: for 31 matches, Arsenal allowed 14 goals. That's less than 0.5 of a goal per game. Spurs by comparison offered 1.34 over the same period.

The lesson from the numbers seems fairly stark - Spurs have hit a plateau in chasing the last Champions League spot. Levy seems to have his French counterpart's quote about lucky generals on the brain - this summer Levy went with the almost unproven Mauricio Pochettino after a fairly decent season over at Southampton to make it four managers in four years. It's probably fair to say that decision owes partly to the wave of talented English youngsters at Pochettino's disposal upon his arrival from Espanyol.

Those Belgian crossroads might be symbolic of Spurs and more particularly Levy. This appears a very definite moment when Levy has, to use the parlance of the businessman, 'gone with his gut' with Pochettino. Because there's no other reason, other than a middling marketplace for management, to have gone with the Argentine over anyone else.

It seems unlikely that, even with a squad full of decent players, Spurs will be favourites for a Champions League spot, as they now have Van Gaal's United, the revitalised Liverpool and a strengthened Arsenal to deal with. But what will Levy's reaction be if they don't reach the Champions League? And what of Levy's apparently ever-changing whims on choice of manager and playing squad?

The emperor that launched increasingly improbable campaigns to reassert his goals and philosophy was eventually cast adrift in the Atlantic, a victim of an ego-driven misadventure. A recognisable fate hangs heavily over Pochettino, but the watching eyes from the terraces should look a little higher.

Picture thanks to the Guardian

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