Premier League 2014-15 Season Preview: Part 1

It's back. And nobody was watching that golf nonsense anyway.

At last. Welcome back, football. Like dust,  football just never goes away. It always looks like the same stuff, but it's always a bit different. And with that in mind, it seems a nice moment to think about what's going to happen this season. First up:
 

Who will win the league?

 

Mourinho's horse metaphor was an apt assessment of last season. Though his 'little horse' comment was mischievous, the smokescreen it established meant a new perspective on Chelsea's less glamorous results - precisely what the Portuguese wanted.

To borrow the metaphor, thoroughbreds always win championships, and in Manchester City there was only one of those last season. Now there are two. Mourinho's raid on his Champions League nemeses, Atletico, has added the requisite grit at the back and bombast up front. Fabregas returns to London from Catalonia a changed man, able to play a forward's role as well as his more familiar central midfield position, and his role in Mourinho's attacking midfield - where he is known to favour pace and physique above agility (if he can't have both) - will intrigue.

 

Costa and Terry argue. That's one problem sorted then.

Inevitably for a Mourinho team, it's likely to come down to the GA column in the table.  Chelsea's united front of Ivanovic, Terry, Cahill and Azpilicueta now has Filipe Luis in it and Thibault Courtois behind it. With Kalas and Zouma in the wings, you get the feeling only an assault of the elemental kind would dissuade resolve. Aspiring Premier League chairmen should see what Roland Emmerich or perhaps Alejandro Jodorowsky have up their sleeves.

In what may be a blessing in disguise for Chelsea and their po-faced arsonist/ coach, Louis Van Gaal's arrival undoubtedly means United are once again the club to watch this season. A relatively comfortable start could see them challenging the early leaders before Liverpool come to town on December 13th to resume hostilities.

 

It's hard to assess which of these clubs will be the superior by that point, with both in need of some rebuilding to some extent. Of the two, Brendan Rodgers' need to replace the explosive results of Luis Suarez appear the more challenging, on the face of it.

Van Gaal, maybe thinking deep thoughts. Maybe not.

 

But Van Gaal (right) and United should start behind their neighbours in more than the alphabetical sense. Rodgers' rebuilding project has taken in a few dead ends, with some deals - Iago Aspas stands out - more bemusing than bewitching, but he's two years ahead of United, where a paradox of having more net income than every other club in the league, but a lack of quality options to choose from, is proving a tricky hurdle. 

 

Herrera has finally arrived and provides ballast for Carrick, but their proposed 5-3-2 shape demands at least one additional centre half, as well as a potential upgrade at right wing back based on current options. Encouragingly Robin van Persie doesn't appear to be an international that suffers tournament hangovers - in his last two major tournaments he has scored more goals than the previous season. Question marks over a considerable portion of a squad Ferguson won a 20th title with are still a big reason for more modest aims this year.

 

United's goals are clear and distinct; rebuild, aim for Europe, maybe a trophy. For Liverpool, their success may blur priorities. They arguably blew their best ever chance to claim the Premier League and Europe may offer irresistible opportunities to a side that were deadly in individual matches last season, despite conceding 50 goals.

 

Dejan Lovren, presumably just out of the gym in that vest

Anfield may be in redevelopment in more than the bricks and mortar sense, but Rodgers' newest recruits from the south coast, and their title-chasing colleagues, will receive spinetingling confirmation of their manager's relentless dedication to putting Liverpool back on their f'ing perch come midweek, midseason.

Even the less boisterous Liverpool fan riles at the suggestion Europe does not miss their contribution. And they make a good point, and should the squad still be visiting John Lennon airport in March next year, expect their league title to falter - and the temperature to rise a bit on Merseyside.

 

Whilst Arsenal have markedly upped their spending this summer, there remains little supplementary firepower for Giroud, although Alexis will undoubtedly add menace to an already scintillating forward line.

 

Arsenal seem committed to a certain kind of football, stockpiling aesthetic brilliance as if a football Cold War were about to descend, and their need for a holding midfielder to support Flamini, and a replacement for Vermaelen remain issues.

We've won something! Can everyone stop going on now?

 

They have kept pace with those directly around them, but they need to start throwing a few elbows at their rivals mid-race if they want to be out in front near the finish. Key games at the usual haunts  - Liverpool, Chelsea and the Manchester clubs - await. For a team that thrives on confidence, their need for positive outcomes is crucial to success.

And so to last season's champions and this year's other big favourites. Three titles in four years, and consecutive championships, would put City in the company of just Chelsea and their illustrious Stretford neighbours. Statements made, markers laid, etc etc.

 

And if everything goes to plan, this season should be a straight fight between Chelsea and City for the title. That plans are being made and adhered to is still a source of miraculous joy for most City fans, but there you go.

 

Van Persie and Mangala will play as derby rivals this season

Mangala and Sagna's arrival removed City's weaknesses in defence at a stroke and Fernando's arrival asks an awkward question of Javi Garcia and potentially the unfortunate James Milner. Joe Hart meanwhile faces the unenviable task of improving on his outstanding form in 2014 with the arrival of Willy Caballero, sub in nothing but name having played seven more matches than the England international for Malaga last season.

 

FFP has meant City's movements have been prudent this summer, and there's little doubt Mangala will close the door after him following his signing. Yet Sunday's loss to Arsenal demonstrated the disjointed movements of a spineless team, and it will again fall to Kompany, Toure, Silva and Aguero to provide the nitrous power that rocketed City to 102 goals and the top position in May.

As has been said elsewhere, when Mourinho has to win - at Chelsea the first time, and at Real in his second season - he does. And there's plenty to suggest City will work very hard to improve on last season's second round exit from Europe, with a deeper squad to play deep into two draining competitions.

 

So bearing in mind all of the above, and taking into account personal bias, here's my top four for May 2015:

1st: Man City

2nd: Chelsea

3rd: Man United

4th: Arsenal (sorry, Arsenal fans)

 

Next: Who's going down? Who's the worst signing? Who's the best? Plus: why tracksuits should be banned from touchlines, new rules for referees and the relationship between bad managers and 'banter' finally investigated.

 

Pics thanks to the BBC, the Mail, Bleacher Report, CNN and Zimbio

Daniel In The Lion's Den

Pochettino will suffer if Spurs fail again, but Levy's decisions over managers and transfer policy should now be given the same scrutiny

The Napoleonic travails of Daniel Levy go on. Ensconced in the Spurs chairman's seat in 2001, he was just nine years older than the great French general when he overthrew the French government aged thirty.

In the twenty years following, Bonaparte galloped across Europe, Asia and parts of North Africa, with aims of conquering large parts of civilisation, only to come unstuck just over the border in the United Kingdom of the Netherlands, now postal code 1410, with the sign for the crossroads present at the time of battle still planted firmly in the middle of town.

Levy's perplexing criss-crossing all over the Premier League, Europe and further afield in search of domination - or a regular Champions League spot - has long been a point of debate for football fans, journalists and perhaps the growing list of managers he has sacked. It's prompted journalists to ask what Levy wants to see from Spurs and how he intends to achieve it.

Bids this week for Southampton's Jay Rodriguez and Morgan Schneiderlin, both rebuffed by the club's chairman, have also highlighted the carousel-like nature of Spurs' squad in the summer months. This year is no different to any of Spur's previous four.

In 2010 they signed eight first team players. Seven went back out on loan to other, mainly Football League clubs. In 2011 they signed six and let four go. In 2012 Spurs bought eight players and released or sold nine, and last season Spurs bought and sold or released seven players.

Their league position throughout the same dates has ranged from fourth to sixth. There is a spread of just ten points between their best and worst season performances in that time - 62 being the worst and 72 being the best. Even their goals scored and against are remarkably similar, with 55, 66, 66 and 55 for from 2010-2014 and 46, 41, 46, 51 against for the same period. A spread of 11 for and ten against respectively.

Contrast those spreads with Arsenal, their longstanding nefarious rivals, and the picture becomes clearer. Arsenal have improved each season in points gained, with 68, 70, 73 and 79 in consecutive seasons. That isn't the case with Spurs. Their goals for spread is just four, and their lowest goals scored is two more than Spurs' highest at 68.

Their goals against spread is 11 - the same as Spurs - but the 2013-14 season is a case in point: for 31 matches, Arsenal allowed 14 goals. That's less than 0.5 of a goal per game. Spurs by comparison offered 1.34 over the same period.

The lesson from the numbers seems fairly stark - Spurs have hit a plateau in chasing the last Champions League spot. Levy seems to have his French counterpart's quote about lucky generals on the brain - this summer Levy went with the almost unproven Mauricio Pochettino after a fairly decent season over at Southampton to make it four managers in four years. It's probably fair to say that decision owes partly to the wave of talented English youngsters at Pochettino's disposal upon his arrival from Espanyol.

Those Belgian crossroads might be symbolic of Spurs and more particularly Levy. This appears a very definite moment when Levy has, to use the parlance of the businessman, 'gone with his gut' with Pochettino. Because there's no other reason, other than a middling marketplace for management, to have gone with the Argentine over anyone else.

It seems unlikely that, even with a squad full of decent players, Spurs will be favourites for a Champions League spot, as they now have Van Gaal's United, the revitalised Liverpool and a strengthened Arsenal to deal with. But what will Levy's reaction be if they don't reach the Champions League? And what of Levy's apparently ever-changing whims on choice of manager and playing squad?

The emperor that launched increasingly improbable campaigns to reassert his goals and philosophy was eventually cast adrift in the Atlantic, a victim of an ego-driven misadventure. A recognisable fate hangs heavily over Pochettino, but the watching eyes from the terraces should look a little higher.

Picture thanks to the Guardian

Loose Fixtures

Clubs that choose their own fixtures could improve player fitness, reduce injuries and make the Premier League more entertaining

Somewhere, in an office in a quiet suburban backwater, a printer smoothly deposits a sheaf of A4, around a quarter of an inch in depth, into the hand of a man wearing a slightly creased shirt. He has his top button undone.

The man sits back in his chair for a moment, fishing for his cigarettes in his breast pocket with forefinger and thumb, perusing the first page with a slight squint. He is getting older, and this is the nineteenth year he has done this job. A coffee in a coffee-coloured plastic vending cup cools on his cluttered desk. He frowns, exhales loudly and flicks through pages.

Then his eyes stop. He stares, and then checks his watch. Then his diary. There is a small cross and 'LS' is marked next to the date. He checks the sheet again. He checks his diary again. He drops his cigarettes on the desk and turns back to his computer, and opens his email.

Someone has beaten him to it. There is one new unread email in his inbox, and it reads:

'El Clasico - Luis is back!!!'

The man balls a fist and swears jubilantly. Outside, nothing has changed.

That's what you'll get when you leave the idea of the random fixture generator to an overactive imagination, anyway. In truth, whilst it's probably not without its share of quirks, there's probably less smoking and less swearing. And a paperless environment, in modern climes.

So many unfortunate pictures of Luis Suarez to chew over.

But sometimes there's a fixture so good, at just the right moment, that you want to raise an eyebrow at the sheer improbability of it all. It's a fair bet this season's has already happened. In Spain, the first clasico falls on the first day Luis Suarez (above) is allowed to train with his new club after that ban for what's been amusingly dubbed the most expensive Italian he'll probably ever eat.

Irrespective of emotional reactions here, the return of Suarez could probably not be better timed. He may not play as he is not supposed to even train during his ban - but you can bet Barcelona will try to find a way around that particular predicament, even if it involves him training in private, away from the club and staff. Will he get 15 minutes? If he's even halfway fit, and it's a tight contest...

No doubt that it is a coincidence - but is there some merit in considering the unthinkable and letting clubs choose when some of their games are played?

There are plenty of good sporting ones - for one, many European trams, and particularly English ones, are breathing hard as they reach the final sprint of a long season, and fatigue undoubtedly plays a part in deciding outcomes in tight games where previously a draw may have beckoned.

That makes the game interesting. But what about the various flights clubs have to make when making up European games? Teams in the Champions League have to fly to and from countries in the space of 48 hours before weekend matches. The matches aren't going to go away - but what about giving each team, say, three matches they can definitely move once the fixtures are announced?

Each team's decision would be binding - i.e the opposing team would not be able to overrule - and this would be communicated to interested parties in advance (e.g the ubiquitous television networks involved in European football's fixture list sequencing).

This could be particularly useful for those clubs on the accursed Thursday-Sunday routine when midweek European trips to far-flung Greek/ Ukrainian/ Russian clubs mean longer returns and recoveries, especially in midwinter. Teams such as Spurs, who have been on the brink of regular Champions League qualification for the last decade, could utilise the policy to trade in some of their trickier away games for easier matches or even a bye weekend, should the fixture list allow it.

For teams struggling to meet the demands of the Premier League or those facing up to relegation, a canny perusal of the fixtures before the start of the seasons could establish which games to move to give players a break, or breaking a chain of difficult matches to prevent fatigue and low morale setting in after a series of poor results.

 

There could also be a benefit to reducing the number of injuries in teams. Several clubs may benefit from moving games out of the hectic Christmas period, when congestion is common and players carry injuries over into the new year as European competitions start again. Clubs given the opportunity to move these could see players return from injury quicker and pick up less 'niggly' injuries - which seriously hindered Arsenal's prospects last season, for example.

From an entertainment perspective, very little in practice would actually change - in fact it might be arguable that the league may actually get more competitive as all teams would be able to manipulate their performance to some extent, which could produce some interesting results come May. Although Spurs would still probably come fifth.

Picture thanks to Sky Sports