Thoughts on... World Cup 2014

Why Spain won't win, why Argentina could, and why Brazil probably will

 

It's never nice to see bold predictions spectacularly backfire, as Dutch journalist Simon Kuper learned last night. But I'm going to make some anyway.

 

 1. Spain won't win again

Simply put, Spain are far too close in organisation and style to club side Barcelona, who ended this season without a trophy for the first time in six years. There are seven Barcelona players in the Spain squad. Real have three, and league champions Atletico have four. Five of those Barca players started last night's game, and Pedro came on during the second half.  

 
Both sides monopolise possession. Both sides have struggled to score goals recently, with Barca's end-of-season form particularly unsettling from a Spanish perspective. The numbers are very similar: Spain controlled matches with 65% possession at the last World Cup and a staggering 68% at Euro 2012. Barca's record is very similar, with 67% in 2010 and 68% in 2012. Real Madrid, la seleccion's other main source of players, offered 56% in both 2010 and 2012.

Goals have also been hard to come by for Spanish strikers, with only Brazil-born Diego Costa scoring more than 20 goals in his respective league this season. Whilst Spain have relied on a solid defence and vast amounts of the ball to control matches, the signs last night were ominous. 

Ramos, tormented by Robben, appears to have left his form in Lisbon. Pique seems affected by that anxiety and exhaustion that has consumed the blaugrana in their final weeks. And perhaps Casillas (above), struggling for game time, has finally hit the wall after a career laden with awards. With all of these barriers to overcome, it will not be La Roja who lift the trophy in the Maracana.

 

2. Brazil enjoy home comforts

 

As Nate Silver's noted, Brazil are nearly unbeatable at home when it really counts. Leaving aside a very streaky performance versus a bold, adventurous Croatia, Group A should hold no further worries for them, with a Mexico side rebounding from a dismal 12 months and a Cameroon side yet again distracted by pay issues from its FA.

 

Plenty of commentators have observed the near-religious fervor the team experiences in Brazil, and it is very tempting to wonder how much of Thursday's performance was down to nerves. Scolari's side do look very vulnerable to thrusting counterattacks down the wings, with Alves particularly at fault on Thursday evening, and sides that can capitalise on this will enjoy chances aplenty. But Brazil rarely come apart when it really matters, and still boast a team spread across Europe complete with genuine stars - Neymar (above) and Thiago Silva being the standouts. 

 

But the most compelling reason for tipping Brazil lies in their history at home. As mentioned, the last time Brazil last lost a competitive match in their home country was 1975. The only surprise is that bookmakers have not chosen the hosts as their runaway favourites - for that is what the form book suggests. 

 

3. Belgium will struggle

 

Every serious football hipster wants to see Belgium do well. And with a squad containing some of Europe's premier talents, it's likely they'll make short work of a group that offers only Russia as the serious competition. Hazard, De Bruyne, Kompany and co will also see the tournament as a chance to make a dent on the 'good on paper' theory plenty will subscribe to.
 
Their weak point, unfortunately, is a lack of goals. Although plenty of the team have contributed, Christian Benteke is their top scorer with six goals since 2010. And with Benteke out through the injury, Belgium will need to find goals from elsewhere - and on current form at this World Cup, lots of them.
 

The other significant problem is Belgium's second round opponents, who will probably be either Germany or Portugal. Portugal may not possess as much strength in depth as their illustrious group counterparts, but in Ronaldo they will offer every team a serious threat and a backing squad of Joao Moutinho, Pepe, Fabio Coentrao and Varela will keep Belgium occupied. This is probably two years too early. Expect big things in 2016. 

 

4. Argentina should run Brazil close

 

La Albiceleste are ranked as second favourites to lift the Jules Rimet trophy behind the hosts Brazil, but leaving aside home advantage, the Argentines possess a far stronger squad than almost everyone else, bar the Germans and Spain. A dazzling forward line containing Higuain (right), Aguero and Lionel Messi is backed up by a renascent Fernando Gago and Real Madrid's Champions League final architect, Angel di Maria.

 

Statistically they are South America's deadliest side - with the highest ball retention figure at 85% and more goals (35) than every other side, they will run riot in a weak group containing Bosnia-Herzegovina, Nigeria and Iran. They have scored two goals or more in more than a third of all games since 2010, and that habit of building unassailable leads will be important in sticky, sapping conditions. And with potentially the easiest route to the final of all of the favourites, the neutrals have more than one reason to hedge their bets on Brazil's hated neighbours winning in their backyard.

 

5. Sometimes statistics count for nothing

 

Jonathan Liew makes England to be statistically the model team for winning the World Cup. And that's really why you should take all of the above with a large pinch of cachaça.

Photos from Soccer Lens and The Guardian

 

Speechless!                          

Ivan Rakitic was lost for words against Valencia. It's the perfect expression of La Liga's most underrated player

 

Sevilla's captain Ivan Rakitic gave an interview on Thursday night after Stephane M'bia's last-gasp, last-minute goal sent them through to a Europa League final in Turin that they hadn't even qualified for. It was a classic. "It's ... pfff ... erm ... ahh ... what do you want me to say?"

Sort of an anti-quote, if you like. It grabs the eye because of its lack of anything definitive expressed. A verbal shrug of the shoulders, pure emotion encapsulated in a few short words. And yet this was much more tangible than almost every other interview given in football this week. Sid Lowe put it best; it is why we watch football.

It put the humanity back in the game, it expressed (or rather, didn't) everything the ordinary fan experiences. And it came from a man who, fittingly, would be called John if he were born in this country.

Some names appear to be destined for large, flashing lights, masses of people in a particular part of the world screaming their name, and overt sexual requests on Twitter. Cristiano Ronaldo. Neymar Junior. These men would never be dentists, or salespeople. And yet Rakitic is as integral to his team as Ronaldo, and statistically has performed better than Neymar all season, at a smaller club with infinitely smaller resources. Case in point: Sevilla's wage budget this season is €41 million. Barca's is €195 million.

Ivan Rakitic sounds like he could be an ordinary guy, and continuing the name-as-occupation theme, he could easily be a postman. Or some sort of eyecare consultant. As mentioned, the name 'Ivan' is the Slavic derivation of 'John', and we all know a John. If he plays a sport, it's snooker, or maybe badminton. He's probably an accountant, he's generally quite dependable, he's attractive to a reasonable percentage of the opposite sex.

Neymar, Brazil's no 10, seems to exist in some ethereal nickname hinterland, probably with a variety of other Brazilian number tens, an amalgamation of Brazilian society, sports merchandising and football history. He's emblematic of contemporary superstardom - a man defined more by ideas, ad campaigns, than flesh and blood. Perhaps that is why his performances this year have not always grabbed the eye - as if we weren't quite dialled in to the right frequency, he seems to have disappeared and then burst back into focus. It is as though the metaphysical has become physical and is now crushing the life out of Brazil's new favourite son.

 

My point, anyway, is that despite Rakitic consistently outperforming one of the world's most famous players, and star of Nike's latest fantasy football ad, it appears he does not garner the same adulation. Why?

 

His club is an important part of that. Rakitic plays for Sevilla, not Real, nor Barcelona, who dwarf their respective counterparts to such an extent it once prompted Diego Simeone, Atletico Madrid's manager, to pronounce the league 'a boring championship for the rest of the supporters who can only aspire to be third or fourth.' That Simeone is rightly being hailed as a masterful coach on the verge of a Champions League and league double with Atleti is evidence of this.

This season Sevilla are 5th, six points off Athletic for the final qualifying Champions League place, after two consecutive ninth placed finishes. They're only in Europe because UEFA kicked Malaga and Rayo Vallecano for overzealous spending and financial 'irregularities'. Although a 3-0 defeat to the Basques last weekend means that it's likely Sevilla will play Europa, not Champions League football next season, their upswing in form has been nothing short of amazing. Rakitic has been with the club since 2011 after joining from Schalke 04, and after a slightly slow start, this seems to be the season everything has clicked.

The most obvious evidence is his goals to games ratio. As a Sevilla player he has 27 goals in three years. He has scored 12 of those this season, and made 10 more, pushing Sevilla up the table. He's also part of a Sevilla team that is considerably more durable, turning losses and draws into draws and wins. Only Ronaldo, Diego Costa and team-mate Kevin Gameiro have scored more goals than him in the last 15 minutes of a match, making Sevilla, along with Madrid, a consistently difficult side to beat - and particularly dangerous in the final few moments, never better evidenced than that last, unbelievable minute against Valencia on Thursday night.

Rakitic is also part of a midfield which retains the ball expertly whether home or away - they play nearly 50% of their football in the middle third in the pitch - and work hard to retrieve it, with the highest pass interception rate of all the top 5 teams.

Whilst he has always featured in the centre of midfield, it's the number 10 role which has apparently made him a target for Napoli and Liverpool. He can score from anywhere in midfield but all of his ten assists this season have come from him playing as an attacking central midfielder. Such is his importance to Sevilla that he has a higher pass completion rate than any of his team-mates - it currently stands at 79.6%, comparable to the league's best players, including Bale and Ronaldo at Madrid.

Finally his skill with playing long balls means he's highly effective at shifting the point of play very quickly, which would probably appeal to Brendan Rodgers, currently using Steven Gerrard in a similar role, and Rafa Benitez, who of course signed Xabi Alonso for Liverpool upon joining the club.

Rakitic is due to play at this year's World Cup for Croatia alongside Madrid's Luka Modric, who has had an outstanding year playing as one of Ancelotti's volantes in his 'Christmas tree' formation. His opponents? Mexico, Cameroon - and Brazil. It will be interesting to see how a man who fronts an ad campaign for a bank - connection: the bank is Brazilian - faces up to a man who has outperformed him all season, but can't even give a quote after a football match.

 

Pic courtesy of The Star